JOSH BUCHANAN

JUNE 2, 2021

The month of May is now behind us and the busy market trends somehow managed to continue. It has now been a full year of market behaviour which has greatly outpaced historical numbers. As of the end of May, we already have 2,326 sales which is a jump of nearly 500 compared to the next busiest year, 2014, where sales stood at 1,857 by the end of May. 

For monthly numbers, May saw 576 sales which is up drastically from last May, largely due to last year’s slowdown in the market from market restrictions and the pandemic. There were 1,015, listings which are also up a great deal from last year. The sales-to-listings ratio was 0.57 which is a pretty healthy ratio and up 14 points from last May. Comparing sales and listings to last May isn’t really a fair comparison because of what happened last May, however, if compared to 2019, the numbers are still way stronger. 

For the 5-year average comparison for the month of May, this year saw an increase in sales of nearly 200 units from 387 to 576, and increase in listings of nearly 100 units from 926 to 1,015 and a huge increase in the sales-to-listings ratio from 0.42 to 0.57. 

For the year-to-date numbers, 2021 is outpacing every other year in history by a large portion. We currently sit at 2,326 sales which is an increase of over 800 units compared to any other year in the past 5 years and up by over 1,000 compared to this time last year. I don’t really understand how people can argue that the increase in sales is simply “pent up demand” at this point. That was the case for last June and July but this kind of market behaviour is due to much greater factors than pent up demand from 2 slow months in spring 2020. Listings on the year currently sit at 3,997 which is also up drastically from last year and any other year in recent history. However, the sales-to-listings ratio is still much stronger than any year in the past decade. The average sales price on the year is also way up as it sits at $367,741 which is an increase of $27,000 from last year and also the highest in over a decade.

When looking at the 5-year average for YTD numbers, this year is up 918 sales, up 330 listings, up $28,000 in average sales price and up 19 points for the sales-to-listings ratio. 

Conclusion:
If you block out what’s going on in the world and the reasoning for this market activity and simply look at the numbers, this market is very active and showing very healthy numbers. A sales-to-listings ratio of 0.58 is nearly ideal in my opinion and the only issue with the numbers is that we have a shortage of detached houses as the months-of-inventory ratio for that category is too low which is why prices are rising quite rapidly. Otherwise, these are really good statistics. If you want to look at what’s causing this to happen and if it’s sustainable then that’s a different story and we may run into some issues with things like asset inflation, detached housing shortages, lumber shortages, people being over-leveraged, etc.